Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Psych 101...

So yesterday, after weeks of being firmly stuck in fifth-place limbo, I was catapulted into third place in my fantasy baseball league. This was thanks, in no small part, to many of my pitchers finally waking up after a season of lazy slumber. Last night I got two saves – one from the Yankees’ Rivera, and one from Todd Jones in Detroit. I also got a pretty decent win from Milwaukee’s Doug Davis, and, best of all, got a complete game shut out from my number one draft pick Chris Carpenter. Finally – FINALLY – my number one draft pick is earning me some points. Thank you, Mr. Carpenter. All those wins added up to 105 points for pitching, plus 24 for offense (not my best offensive day, but I more than made up for that with the pitching), so it was a very substantial 129-point day for me. If my pitching can maintain some momentum, I shall be, as Rick said last night, “a force to be reckoned with.” Yes. I shall be.

And I think I know when everything started to turn around. Actually, you have to go back to the beginning of the season, when I was in first place for quite a while. At the time, I was in possession of not only Ortiz the Yankee Killer, but also Tim Wakefield, a Boston pitcher. Early on in the season, I made the mistake of pitching Wakefield against the Yankees. Not that Wakefield lost the game or anything. On the contrary – Boston won that game, and I earned a few pitching points. However, I was left with a very uneasy feeling about my decision to pitch someone against the Yankees. What’s more, I started having a string of what seemed like very bad luck with my entire pitching rotation. Players who were supposedly “ace” pitchers were eking out pathetic point totals… “recommended” pitchers were losing games… pitchers I left on my bench were throwing complete games and taunting me with points I’d never see. What was happening with all those pitchers?

I finally figured it out, as I sat at home watching “My Name is Earl” on television one night. I was face to face with the consequences of karma – or, for those of us who might not believe in karma, you could also call it Isaac Newton’s third law of physics: every action has an equal and opposite reaction. I played a Boston pitcher against the New York Yankees (action), and as a consequence, my pitching began to suffer (opposite reaction). Once I played Wakefield, there was nothing I could do to stop the pitching carnage that followed. It was a law of physics. Or karma. Either way, unstoppable. Fortunately, once I deliberately STOPPED pitching players against the Yankees, my team began to realign itself, very slowly, until things started falling into place again. It took a while, but I’m hoping the opposite reaction to my action has run its course.

Need further proof of this law of physics? Rick was in first place throughout much of my karmic downfall, and a few weeks ago, he decided to pitch Tampa Bay’s Kazmir against the Yankees. I warned him. Don’t do it, I said. It’s bad karma. It’s a law of physics. It’s a place you don’t want to go. He did it anyway. And his team has been steadily declining ever since. Coincidence? I think not. Or, consider, if you will, the fact that I benched Jered Weaver when he pitched against the Yankees last week. Guess what? Weaver won that game and I would’ve had a few dozen points if I’d played him. Guess what else? I got 129 points yesterday…

See how it works? It’s no secret that baseball is a very superstitious game – look at the Boston Red Sox. Instead of just admitting that they sucked for 86 years straight, they were convinced there was a “curse” upon them. Everyone has heard the stories of a pitcher who wears the same hat throughout the season, or a batter who won’t change his socks when he’s on a hitting streak (I’d hate to have a locker next to THAT guy). Or look at the batters at the plate in any game – they all have their quirky pre-bat rituals. Matsui has a subtle little shoulder shrug… Ichiro swings the bat in a wide arc and tugs on his jersey… Jeter re-velcros his gloves and then salutes the stands while adjusting his batting helmet. And this is before every single pitch. Do these rituals actually make these guys hit any better? Of course not. But maybe it’s psychological, like the placebo effect – if they THINK those rituals help them hit better, perhaps they really do. Or, in other words, perhaps they’d hit WORSE if they failed to perform their superstitious pre-hit habits. Not because those things actually have an effect, but because without them, the batters would be less focused on hitting the ball and more focused on the absence of their ritual. They would, in effect, defeat themselves – their own assumption that these habits improve their game would be like a self-fulfilling prophesy. The LACK of action would have an equal and opposite LACK of reaction…

So does it actually help my fantasy baseball team if I bench pitchers when they’re playing against the Yankees? I doubt it. But am I going to take any chances? Absolutely not. Did I mention my 129 points yesterday?

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